This is really fun to read and I think it's awesome that you've analyzed these jams so thoroughly. I do feel inclined to chime in and say that your description of "modulation vs. tonicization" is a bit inaccurate, however. You have the idea right, but in practice tonicization only refers to tonicizing a new pitch for literally as little as one bar, or in many cases even only one beat. For instance every 12 bar blues progression has a tonicization in it when we emphasize the dominant 7th on the one chord and feel that strong pull to the four chord. These moments, referred to as "secondary dominants", are when tonicizations occur. They would be labelled in a harmonic analysis as such "V7/IV" or "V/vi" and verbalized "five or four" or "five of six." These occur routinely in everything from Bach to Taylor Swift and thus the term "tonicization" has been created to give this a name without having to call it a "modulation." A true modulation, when analyzing a Bach fugue for instance, will regularly only last a couple of bars. The middle part of any Mozart movement in Sonata Allegro form functions solely to have fun with modulation and at that point will move from key to key in the course of a few bars. These short diversions would all be labelled as true "modulations" when doing a harmonic analysis, not tonicizations. You said yourself that picking 2 minutes was arbitrary, but I'll offer that it's actually lead to an inaccurate analysis. That Bowie on 8/16 for instance, ABSOLUTELY modulated. (and god it was fucking awesome!) Anyway, just wanted to chime in as phish discussion rarely allows for this level of theory nerdom. I appreciate the opportunity for discussion!